好了，我们搞砸了一年前的预测，即上个月的美国总统选举将导致历史道岔 - 它并没有完全打的是马克 - 并用电子投票系统前所未有的困难。的问题，事实证明，是为先例的大部分。从积极的一面，我们钉的结果，预测美国总统奥巴马的选举。不倾向于停留在那桂树（我们也准确地预言了几个人），我们再次阐明，找出哪些行业分析师对于2009年的预测，我们已经谈过源，以及给我们的最令人讨厌的朋友和同事拿出我们自己的一套预测为2009年。
Absent from this year's list of 10 prognostications is an entry about Microsoft finally buying at least the ad-search business of Yahoo, if not the whole company. We left that one off the list for next year because we still expect it could happen in 2008. With that in mind and in no particular order:
The economy will limp along
OK，毫不奇怪，经济将主宰至少2009年大部分时间，如果不是全年的消息。有什么东西从戈登·布鲁克斯这样的评论：“我相信没有人有任何想法”经济衰退将持续多久，Symphony公司，产品工程服务公司在外包市场浸淫的总裁兼首席执行官说。他一直聊到银行家，听经济学家和消化一切他可以忍受，因为他在衰退中导航，他的公司。但是，我们会排挤的肢体和预测，我们会看到在今年年中好转的迹象，并与布鲁克斯的评估去，虽然2009年全年将崎岖，到今年年底回升将是正在进行。
That said, along the way we'll find "a purging of our inefficiencies and of things that had gotten out of whack," as Brooks expects. That can only mean more layoffs, and while IT departments overall are more likely to stumble through the recession in reasonable shape, we expect that some market segments, notably hardware and consumer electronics, are going to be hosed for much of the year. We'll leave particular percentage predictions for growth rates, or the lack therefore, to the analysts such asFitch, which is forecasting no growth to a 3 percent drop in worldwide PC units as companies hold off on upgrading.
But there's good news
经济衰退往往会推动创新，并推动新的技术和产品的推出，以吸引用户花钱。这已超过在DRAM（动态RAM）市场上，公司都集中在试图尽可能快，因为他们可以得到DDR3了几年尤其如此。他们在船上得到的主板，芯片组和微处理器公司，以支持新的内存芯片，使的是什么减缓下来。但是我们看到DDR3成为新的主流DRAM芯片在2009年。
And more good news
Netbooks have generated a lot of buzz (and no little bit of hype) of late as more of the small, low-cost, lightweight, energy-efficient laptops hit the market. That will continue apace, but we also expect that the average price of US$400-$500 will drop to the $200-$300 range. Part of the price plunge will owe to volume production because the price of parts will drop as more netbooks are made.
iPho万岁ne
我们在市场研究公司IDC的一致，“这将是移动小工具一个严峻的一年 - 在手机销量增长变平，因为上网本电脑拓展市场，但威胁的笔记本电脑的价格和利润，以及作为个人导航整合织机设备。”然而，我们认为，iPhone将会发挥重要的作用 - 也许一手 - 在保持智能手机市场顺流，即使它会需要抛出沿途救生圈。（这是比喻，而不是意味着作为一个预言，智能手机制造商将是争夺政府救助。）
哦，我们也认为，IDC的预测，即便携式媒体播放器的出货量将呈现首次下降通过点上，考虑到市场饱和度和有只有这么多的方法来改善，这将促使人们去购买新的球员。
See ya!
Sun Microsystems公司将寻找新的CEO，以取代乔纳森。我们认为，他将驱逐和视图之间撕裂，他将决定这只是时间去，但无论哪种方式，我们不相信他会是太阳在2009年年底CEO，如果他连使得过去的第一季度左右。和Sun将停止在其目前的化身存在，或许是一个重磅收购的一部分，也许私有化。
时代华纳卸载
Time Warner will manage to unload America Online, either by spinning it off as a separate company, selling it, or using it as the basis of a joint venture formed with another company.
Windows 7将被释放
Microsoft hasn't announced a launch date for Windows 7, and while earlier indications were that it would be out in early 2010, company executives have recently hinted that it could be out around the end of 2009. With continued sluggish adoption of Vista -- not to mention ongoing inroads by Linux, notably in the low-priced PC market -- and a warm reception to a beta demonstration of Windows 7 at its Professional Developers Conference in October, we think the hints will become reality and Microsoft will release the OS late in 2009. We'll also be so bold as to predict it will be a vast improvement over Vista. Well, OK, maybe that's not so bold because, you know, how could it be worse, right? But even so, the Microsoft portion of our crystal ball is telling us that Windows 7 will be well-received and help Microsoft regain some of the OS edge it lost in 2008. (But Linux is still going to nip at Microsoft's heels.)
Cloudy days
Well, last year we wanted to resist an entry on virtualization; this year it's cloud computing we'd like to deny, the two being kin and all. We agree with Oracle CEO Larry Ellison that the jargon is "complete gibberish" and the definitions encompass that which already exists and doesn't actually need a label. But we digress -- the point is that companies will keep moving toward software-as-a-service and cloud storage models as they aim to cut costs. SaaS and cloud-based vendors will haul in new customers and post profits. Meanwhile, "private clouds" will loom on the IT horizon as companies less comfortable with letting someone else manage their data and provide related services will set up clouds behind their corporate firewalls. Some of the more headline-grabbing merger and acquisition news of 2009 will occur with vendors focused on the cloud and with SaaS providers. Google and Amazon.com will continue to be particularly aggressive and will target smaller players in acquisition deals.
始终领先一步
网络犯罪分子会发现越来越多的恶意方式来烦恼我们在2009年，有什么感染的PDF（可移植文档格式）和Flash文件的恶意软件的成功。不断更复杂的木马程序将在2009年冒出来刷卡数据和肆虐。沿着这一思路，在今年某个时候，一个主要的在线零售商将有一个严重的安全漏洞暴露信用卡号码和成千上万的客户的个人数据，因为有些人只是从来没有从过去中学习钉。
安全厂商Finjan公司预测的参与网络犯罪的人数将继续上升 - 也毫不奇怪 - 但更令人担忧的扭曲将出现增加说“有越来越多的失业的IT专业人士加盟。”为此，涉及网络的更多新闻头条被挟持心怀不满的前员工表示不解。
关于美国总统奥巴马
什锦行业团体已经淹没当选总统奥巴马有什么，他们认为他的目标应该是尽量完成的技术问题去，即使这个男人肯定有很多对他的板来处理列表，我们要逆势概念，没有多少会有关技术或网络安全等作为2009年都呈现出来完成。我们预测，技术上更精明的总裁将推动这些问题更多的前列比过去。他会在第一次美国CTO信任与球运行，并得到做了一些实际工作。沿着这一思路，当务之急将支撑起美国联邦网络安全防御和实际，认真改进，将前六个月的一年之内发生。
He'll appoint a new U.S. Federal Communications Commission chairman who will shepherd through net neutrality rules to keep broadband providers from blocking or restricting customer access to Internet content. Wider broadband access and adoption will actually happen rather than being talked about all the time as some grand dream, with an administration in place that "gets" the pivotal role of the Internet and actually uses technology. (But we haven't the foggiest idea what he and his family will name the puppy his daughters have been promised.)
（丹Nystedt在台北，詹姆斯Niccolai在旧金山，南希Gohring在西雅图和胡安·卡洛斯·佩雷斯在迈阿密贡献的预测。）